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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 48

New England Patriots 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:04) 7-J.Bailey punts 37 yards to TB 11, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-47-J.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.77 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model