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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Bruce Arians
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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2021-10-03 · 20:20 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread -6.0 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

TB
57.3%
NE
42.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: +0.094 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • QB edge to TB: Mac Jones (NE) -0.069 vs Tom Brady (TB) +0.197 EPA/dropback
  • NE offense: -0.096 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 23
–
NE 22
Projected margin: TB by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

TB

Giovani Bernard RB Out Knee
Jamel Dean CB Out Knee
Rob Gronkowski TE Doubtful Ribs
Carlton Davis CB Questionable Abdomen
Jason Pierre-Paul LB Questionable Shoulder

NE

James White RB Out Hip
Ja'Whaun Bentley LB Questionable Shoulder
Trenton Brown T Questionable Calf
Kyle Dugger S Questionable Hamstring
Nick Folk K Questionable left Knee
J.C. Jackson CB Questionable Knee
Josh Uche LB Questionable Back
Kyle Van Noy LB Questionable Groin
Isaiah Wynn T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 19
–
NE 17

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:53 FG TB (4:53) 3-R.Succop 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion. TB 3 – NE 0
  • Q2 08:35 TD NE (8:35) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 85-H.Henry for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – NE 6
  • Q2 00:18 FG TB (:18) 3-R.Succop 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion. TB 6 – NE 7
  • Q3 03:35 TD TB (3:35) 72-J.Wells reported in as eligible. 27-R.Jones right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 12 – NE 7
  • Q4 15:00 TD NE (15:00) 67-T.Karras reported in as eligible. 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 81-J.Smith for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 13 – NE 13
  • Q4 08:01 FG TB (8:01) 3-R.Succop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion. TB 16 – NE 14
  • Q4 04:37 FG NE (4:37) 6-N.Folk 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 6-Folk 36th consecutive FG, t-6th all-time (Stover). TB 16 – NE 17
  • Q4 02:02 FG TB (2:02) 3-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion. TB 19 – NE 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 9 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 35%

    (13:04) 7-J.Bailey punts 37 yards to TB 11, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-47-J.Johnson.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 45%

    (10:04) 8-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback. Punt was muffed by NE 80-Olszewski at NE4 and touched the pylon, creating the touchback

  • Q1 NE 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:55) 7-J.Bailey punts 49 yards to TB 28, Center-49-J.Cardona. 85-J.Mickens ran ob at TB 38 for 10 yards (18-M.Slater). PENALTY on TB-28-R.Robinson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TB 28.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 7 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%

    (4:53) 3-R.Succop 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 7 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 93%

    (14:53) 3-R.Succop 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 17 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:03) 8-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to NE 32, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by TB-28-R.Robinson.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 33%

    (2:00) 7-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to TB 5, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater. TB-24-C.Davis was injured during the play. He is Out.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 10 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 85%

    (:18) 3-R.Succop 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 9 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:55) 8-B.Pinion punts 34 yards to TB 49, Center-46-C.Tinker. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at TB 38 for 11 yards (51-K.Minter).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 2 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (9:51) 8-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to NE 17, Center-46-C.Tinker. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 23 for 6 yards (48-G.Stuard).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (8:01) 3-R.Succop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 9 at the 9 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (4:37) 6-N.Folk 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 6-Folk 36th consecutive FG, t-6th all-time (Stover).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 8 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 78%

    (2:02) 3-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 37 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 63%

    (:59) 6-N.Folk 56 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.