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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 17 at the 70

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(5:03) 8-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to NE 32, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by TB-28-R.Robinson.

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.40 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 70, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 28, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model