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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 49

New England Patriots 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 7-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to TB 5, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater. TB-24-C.Davis was injured during the play. He is Out.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.22 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.87 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model