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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 26

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(:18) 3-R.Succop 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +3.34 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 26, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.90 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 36, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model