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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 85

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 8-B.Pinion punts 34 yards to TB 49, Center-46-C.Tinker. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at TB 38 for 11 yards (51-K.Minter).

The Three Options

GO -2.77 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.82 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 85, worth -5.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 43, worth -2.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model