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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 60

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(9:51) 8-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to NE 17, Center-46-C.Tinker. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 23 for 6 yards (48-G.Stuard).

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.11 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 60, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 19, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP