4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(8:01) 3-R.Succop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.69 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 8, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model