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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 9

New England Patriots 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

What Actually Happened

(4:37) 6-N.Folk 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 6-Folk 36th consecutive FG, t-6th all-time (Stover).

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.11 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model