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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 30

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(2:02) 3-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.31 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 40, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model