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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 37

New England Patriots 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19

What Actually Happened

(:59) 6-N.Folk 56 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.51 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 37, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 46, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model