Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 77

New England Patriots 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:55) 7-J.Bailey punts 49 yards to TB 28, Center-49-J.Cardona. 85-J.Mickens ran ob at TB 38 for 10 yards (18-M.Slater). PENALTY on TB-28-R.Robinson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TB 28.

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.71 EP
60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model