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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 11

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(4:53) 3-R.Succop 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.81 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model