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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 39

Washington Commanders 19 – Atlanta Falcons 23

What Actually Happened

(8:58) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 10-C.Samuel to ATL 29 for 10 yards (21-D.Harmon). Penalty on ATL-54-F.Oluokun, Defensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.52 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 39, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model