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Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
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ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
Sunday 2021-10-03 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🌧 Rain Spread -1.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

WAS
53.9%
ATL
46.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: -0.175 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to WAS: Matt Ryan (ATL) -0.138 vs Taylor Heinicke (WAS) +0.122 EPA/dropback
  • WAS offense: -0.078 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.156 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 23
–
ATL 22
Projected margin: WAS by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

WAS

Benjamin St-Juste CB Out Concussion
Matt Ioannidis DT Questionable Knee
Antonio Gibson RB Questionable Shin

ATL

Marlon Davidson DT Out Ankle
Russell Gage WR Out Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 34
–
ATL 30

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:05 FG ATL (7:05) 7-Y.Koo 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-C.Nizialek. WAS 0 – ATL 3
  • Q2 11:16 TD ATL (11:16) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 84-C.Patterson for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-Jon.Allen]. WAS 0 – ATL 9
  • Q2 08:02 TD WAS (8:02) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – ATL 10
  • Q2 02:09 TD WAS (2:09) 24-A.Gibson left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – ATL 10
  • Q2 00:19 TD ATL (:19) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 84-C.Patterson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – ATL 16
  • Q3 15:00 TD WAS 9-C.Nizialek kicks 66 yards from ATL 35 to WAS -1. 1-D.Carter for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 19 – ATL 17
  • Q3 11:15 TD ATL (11:15) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 84-C.Patterson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 19 – ATL 23
  • Q3 05:35 FG WAS (5:35) 3-D.Hopkins 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS-75-B.Scherff was injured during the play. WAS 22 – ATL 23
  • Q4 15:00 TD ATL (15:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 28-M.Davis for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 22 – ATL 29
  • Q4 04:02 TD WAS (4:02) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [54-F.Oluokun]. WAS 28 – ATL 30
  • Q4 00:46 TD WAS (:46) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 41-J.McKissic for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. WAS 34 – ATL 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (7:05) 7-Y.Koo 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-C.Nizialek.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 5 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 29%

    (4:12) 5-T.Way punts 39 yards to ATL 12, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 35-A.Williams to ATL 14 for 2 yards (11-C.Sims).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 13 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:59) 9-C.Nizialek punts 46 yards to WAS 29, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-39-T.Green.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 66%

    (13:17) (Shotgun) 24-A.Gibson right tackle to ATL 36 for no gain (97-G.Jarrett, 99-J.Bullard).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 15 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:18) 9-C.Nizialek punts 51 yards to WAS 31, Center-47-J.Harris. 1-D.Carter to WAS 37 for 6 yards (13-C.Blake).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 5 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 59%

    (8:58) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 10-C.Samuel to ATL 29 for 10 yards (21-D.Harmon). Penalty on ATL-54-F.Oluokun, Defensive Holding, declined.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 99%

    (5:35) 3-D.Hopkins 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS-75-B.Scherff was injured during the play.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (12:59) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to ATL 25, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 35-A.Williams to ATL 29 for 4 yards (30-T.Apke).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:08) 7-Y.Koo punts 25 yards to WAS 30, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (2:00) 7-Y.Koo punts 45 yards to WAS 24, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL.