Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 55

Atlanta Falcons 30 – Washington Commanders 22

(10:08) 7-Y.Koo punts 25 yards to WAS 30, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.72 EP
62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 55, worth -2.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model