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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 7 at the 7
Atlanta Falcons 0 – Washington Commanders 0
What Actually Happened
(7:05) 7-Y.Koo 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-C.Nizialek.
The Three Options
GO
+2.39 EP
-
32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.43 EP
- 68% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 7, worth +0.50 EP
KICK
+2.42 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT
+0.36 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
