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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 51

Washington Commanders 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(4:12) 5-T.Way punts 39 yards to ATL 12, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 35-A.Williams to ATL 14 for 2 yards (11-C.Sims).

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.74 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 51, worth -3.01 EP
KICK -1.82 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model