Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 83

Buffalo Bills 31 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

(1:21) 3-M.Haack punts 35 yards to KC 48, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.92 EP
59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 83, worth -4.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model