Win Probability
Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- BUF defense: -0.417 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- KC offense: +0.294 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.479 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- KC defense: +0.235 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- BUF offense: +0.098 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 5
BUF
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:35 FG KC (8:35) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. BUF 0 – KC 3
- Q1 04:41 TD BUF (4:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right guard for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – KC 3
- Q2 10:06 TD KC (10:06) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 13-B.Pringle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 7 – KC 9
- Q2 07:51 TD BUF (7:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 1-E.Sanders for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 13 – KC 10
- Q2 03:16 FG BUF (3:16) 2-T.Bass 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack. BUF 17 – KC 10
- Q2 01:26 TD BUF (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 88-D.Knox for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 23 – KC 10
- Q2 00:07 FG KC (:07) 7-H.Butker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. BUF 24 – KC 13
- Q3 07:20 TD BUF (7:20) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 23-M.Hyde at KC 26. 23-M.Hyde for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 30 – KC 13
- Q4 13:45 TD KC (13:45) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 31 – KC 19
- Q4 05:55 TD BUF (5:55) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 1-E.Sanders for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 37 – KC 20
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 KC 4th & 12 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 92%
(8:35) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 KC 4th & 3 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55%
(5:57) 5-T.Townsend punts 46 yards to BUF 19, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 26 for 7 yards (85-M.Kemp).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 BUF 4th & 11 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%
(3:16) 2-T.Bass 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 32Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 76%
(2:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 87-T.Kelce (21-J.Poyer).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 KC 4th & 12 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 68%
(:07) 7-H.Butker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 BUF 4th & 2 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EPp(convert) 66%
(13:44) 3-M.Haack punts 45 yards to KC 22, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 KC 4th & 4 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(10:57) 5-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to BUF 19, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 BUF 4th & 10 at the 40Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 36% p(FG) 59%
(8:36) 3-M.Haack punts 32 yards to KC 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-25-T.Jones.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 BUF 4th & 10 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(1:21) 3-M.Haack punts 35 yards to KC 48, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown →
