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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 19

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(8:35) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.73 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 19, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +2.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 29, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model