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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 27

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(10:18) 28-J.Jacobs left guard to CHI 27 for no gain (52-K.Mack). PENALTY on CHI-97-M.Edwards, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +2.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.43 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 27, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 37, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model