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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
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Las Vegas Raiders

HC Jon Gruden
Sunday 2021-10-10 · 16:05 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

CHI
24.6%
LV
75.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to LV: Derek Carr (LV) +0.162 vs Justin Fields (CHI) -0.456 EPA/dropback
  • CHI offense: -0.171 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.051 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

CHI 20
–
LV 27
Projected margin: LV by 7 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

CHI

J.P. Holtz TE Out Quadricep
Joel Iyiegbuniwe LB Out Hamstring
Jesse James TE Out Not injury related - personal matter
David Montgomery RB Out Knee
Akiem Hicks DT Doubtful Groin
Tashaun Gipson S Questionable Hamstring
Jesper Horsted TE Questionable Knee
Christian Jones LB Questionable Back
Khalil Mack LB Questionable Ribs

LV

Damon Arnette CB Out Groin
Derek Carrier TE Out Pectoral
Trayvon Mullen CB Out Toe
Peyton Barber RB Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 20
–
LV 9

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:05 FG LV (4:05) 2-D.Carlson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. CHI 0 – LV 3
  • Q2 13:16 TD CHI (13:16) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 87-J.Horsted for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-D.Perryman]. CHI 6 – LV 3
  • Q2 02:00 TD CHI (2:00) 64-A.Bars reported in as eligible. 8-D.Williams left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – LV 3
  • Q4 09:05 TD LV (9:05) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 14 – LV 9
  • Q4 02:50 FG CHI (2:50) 2-C.Santos 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 17 – LV 9
  • Q4 01:01 FG CHI (1:01) 2-C.Santos 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 20 – LV 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 8 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:05) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to LV 27, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 7 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:50) 6-A.Cole punts 68 yards to CHI 2, Center-47-T.Sieg. 17-J.Grant to CHI 19 for 17 yards (32-D.Leavitt; 44-N.Kwiatkoski).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (10:16) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 53 yards to LV 19, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (4:05) 2-D.Carlson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 84%

    (10:18) 28-J.Jacobs left guard to CHI 27 for no gain (52-K.Mack). PENALTY on CHI-97-M.Edwards, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (:58) 6-A.Cole punts 39 yards to CHI 40, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (13:50) 6-A.Cole punts 70 yards to CHI -3, Center-47-T.Sieg. 17-J.Grant to CHI 18 for 21 yards (33-R.Teamer).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (11:48) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to LV 21, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (10:11) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to LV 11, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 12 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:58) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to CHI 17, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 17-J.Grant.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (2:31) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to LV 17, Center-48-P.Scales. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 26 for 9 yards (21-X.Crawford).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 76%

    (12:49) 3-N.Peterman up the middle to CHI 31 for 1 yard (98-B.Nichols, 58-R.Smith). Chicago challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 12:45.)

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 28 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 83%

    (2:50) 2-C.Santos 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 70 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep middle to 89-B.Edwards.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 8 at the 28 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 83%

    (1:01) 2-C.Santos 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.