Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 14 at the 79

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Chicago Bears 14

(:58) 6-A.Cole punts 39 yards to CHI 40, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.86 EP
69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 79, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model