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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 59

Chicago Bears 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(2:31) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to LV 17, Center-48-P.Scales. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 26 for 9 yards (21-X.Crawford).

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.08 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 59, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP