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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 32

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(12:49) 3-N.Peterman up the middle to CHI 31 for 1 yard (98-B.Nichols, 58-R.Smith). Chicago challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 12:45.)

The Three Options

GO +2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.85 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 32, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 42, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model