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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 70

Las Vegas Raiders 9 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep middle to 89-B.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.17 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 70, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 28, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model