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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 71

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(14:24) 1-T.Long punts 63 yards to CLE 8, Center-54-M.Overton, downed by LAC-49-D.Tranquill.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.30 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 71, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 29, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model