CLE @ LAC — 4th & Data

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HC Kevin Stefanski

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HC Brandon Staley

Sunday 2021-10-10 · 16:05 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

CLE

45.0%

LAC

55.0%

🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

CLE offense: +0.092 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
LAC offense: +0.130 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
Justin Herbert (LAC): +0.205 EPA/dropback in prior starts
Indoors — weather neutralised
CLE defense: -0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 25

–

LAC 28

Projected margin: LAC by 3 Projected total: 53

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

CLE

Christopher Hubbard T Out Triceps

Greg Newsome CB Out Calf

Myles Garrett DE Questionable Knee

Jedrick Wills T Questionable Ankle

Jadeveon Clowney DE Questionable Elbow

Tony Fields LB Questionable Shoulder

Troy Hill CB Questionable Toe

Takkarist McKinley DE Questionable Ankle

David Njoku TE Questionable Knee

Malcolm Smith LB Questionable Abdomen

J.C. Tretter C Questionable Knee

Denzel Ward CB Questionable Neck

LAC

Justin Jackson RB Doubtful Groin

Chris Harris CB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 42

–

LAC 47

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 36 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 07:43 FG CLE (7:43) 3-C.McLaughlin 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. CLE 3 – LAC 0
Q1 02:52 TD LAC (2:52) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 89-D.Parham for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 3 – LAC 6
Q2 12:51 TD CLE (12:51) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 82-R.Higgins for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 9 – LAC 7
Q2 11:53 TD LAC (11:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle to 81-M.Williams for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-M.Garrett]. CLE 10 – LAC 13
Q2 00:57 TD CLE (:57) 27-K.Hunt up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LAC-98-L.Joseph, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. CLE 16 – LAC 13
Q2 00:04 FG CLE (:04) 3-C.McLaughlin 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. CLE 20 – LAC 13
Q3 12:29 TD CLE (12:29) 24-N.Chubb right tackle for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 26 – LAC 13
Q3 06:32 TD LAC (6:32) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 27 – LAC 19
Q4 11:30 TD LAC (11:30) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 81-M.Williams for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 27 – LAC 27
Q4 10:53 TD CLE (10:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 85-D.Njoku for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 33 – LAC 28
Q4 07:27 TD LAC (7:27) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 35 – LAC 34
Q4 04:51 TD CLE (4:51) 27-K.Hunt right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 41 – LAC 35
Q4 03:23 TD LAC (3:23) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 42 – LAC 41
Q4 01:38 TD LAC (1:38) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 42 – LAC 47

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 LAC 4th & 6 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(14:24) 1-T.Long punts 63 yards to CLE 8, Center-54-M.Overton, downed by LAC-49-D.Tranquill.
Q1 CLE 4th & 10 at the 17

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 94%

(7:43) 3-C.McLaughlin 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.
Q2 CLE 4th & 2 at the 17

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 56% p(FG) 94%

(8:16) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 13-O.Beckham.
Q2 LAC 4th & 20 at the 93

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(7:06) 1-T.Long punts 55 yards to CLE 38, Center-54-M.Overton. 25-D.Felton to CLE 47 for 9 yards (49-D.Tranquill).
Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 3

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

(:57) 27-K.Hunt up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LAC-98-L.Joseph, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 13

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 67% p(FG) 96%

(:04) 3-C.McLaughlin 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.
Q3 LAC 4th & 2 at the 76

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 64%

(10:34) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler left guard to LAC 33 for 9 yards (38-A.Green).
Q3 LAC 4th & 7 at the 22

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EP

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 90%

(7:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 13-K.Allen ran ob at CLE 10 for 12 yards.
Q3 CLE 4th & 7 at the 53

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 27%

(2:25) 7-J.Gillan punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.
Q4 LAC 4th & 17 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(15:00) 1-T.Long punts 41 yards to CLE 24, Center-54-M.Overton. 25-D.Felton to CLE 32 for 8 yards (23-R.Smith).
Q4 CLE 4th & 20 at the 78

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(12:58) 7-J.Gillan punts 39 yards to LAC 39, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 15-J.Guyton.
Q4 LAC 4th & 8 at the 24

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.44 EP

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 88%

(7:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-K.Allen to CLE 4 for 20 yards (38-A.Green). Penalty on CLE-26-G.Williams, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 82 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46%

(2:11) 7-J.Gillan punts 42 yards to LAC 40, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 84-K.Hill to CLE 48 for 12 yards (25-D.Felton).
Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 54 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(:14) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep right.