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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Cleveland Browns
4th & 2 at the 17
Cleveland Browns 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 13
What Actually Happened
(8:16) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 13-O.Beckham.
The Three Options
GO
+2.29 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.72 EP
- 44% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.88 EP
KICK
+1.41 EP
- 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
- 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT
-0.39 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
