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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 76

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Cleveland Browns 27

What Actually Happened

(10:34) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler left guard to LAC 33 for 9 yards (38-A.Green).

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.18 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 76, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 34, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model