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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 53

Cleveland Browns 27 – Los Angeles Chargers 21

What Actually Happened

(2:25) 7-J.Gillan punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.90 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 53, worth -3.00 EP
KICK -1.57 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model