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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 17 at the 65

Los Angeles Chargers 21 – Cleveland Browns 27

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 1-T.Long punts 41 yards to CLE 24, Center-54-M.Overton. 25-D.Felton to CLE 32 for 8 yards (23-R.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.82 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 65, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 23, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model