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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 20 at the 78

Cleveland Browns 27 – Los Angeles Chargers 21

What Actually Happened

(12:58) 7-J.Gillan punts 39 yards to LAC 39, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 15-J.Guyton.

The Three Options

GO -2.70 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.07 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 35, worth -1.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model