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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 17

Cleveland Browns 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:43) 3-C.McLaughlin 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.47 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model