Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 82

Cleveland Browns 42 – Los Angeles Chargers 41

(2:11) 7-J.Gillan punts 42 yards to LAC 40, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 84-K.Hill to CLE 48 for 12 yards (25-D.Felton).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.91 EP
54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model