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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 83

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(10:15) 6-P.Harvin punts 56 yards to DEN 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-D.Spencer pushed ob at DEN 40 for 13 yards (46-C.Kuntz).

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +1.07 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 83, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 41, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP