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Denver Broncos

HC Vic Fangio
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2021-10-10 · 13:00 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

DEN
64.6%
PIT
35.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to DEN: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) -0.098 vs Teddy Bridgewater (DEN) +0.310 EPA/dropback
  • PIT offense: -0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • DEN offense: +0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.147 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • PIT defense: +0.030 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 24
–
PIT 20
Projected margin: DEN by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

DEN

Albert Okwuegbunam TE Out Hamstring
Teddy Bridgewater QB Questionable Concussion
Melvin Gordon RB Questionable Lower Leg
Diontae Spencer WR Questionable Chest
Patrick Surtain CB Questionable Chest
Courtland Sutton WR Questionable Ankle

PIT

Cameron Sutton CB Out Groin
James Washington WR Out Groin
Rashaad Coward T Out Ankle
Carlos Davis DT Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 19
–
PIT 27

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:09 TD PIT (12:09) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 18-D.Johnson for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – PIT 6
  • Q1 01:47 FG DEN (1:47) 8-B.McManus 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. DEN 3 – PIT 7
  • Q2 12:46 FG PIT (12:46) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. DEN 3 – PIT 10
  • Q2 05:51 FG DEN (5:51) 8-B.McManus 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. DEN 6 – PIT 10
  • Q2 02:16 TD PIT (2:16) 22-N.Harris left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – PIT 16
  • Q3 02:46 TD PIT (2:46) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 11-C.Claypool for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – PIT 23
  • Q4 10:19 TD DEN (10:19) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 9-K.Hinton for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 12 – PIT 24
  • Q4 05:54 TD DEN (5:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 19 – PIT 24
  • Q4 02:33 FG PIT (2:33) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. DEN 19 – PIT 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (10:02) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to PIT 17, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 90%

    (1:47) 8-B.McManus 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 13 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 76%

    (12:46) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (11:54) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to PIT 18, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 18 for no gain (12-M.Ford). PENALTY on PIT-31-J.Layne, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at PIT 18.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 2 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (10:15) 6-P.Harvin punts 56 yards to DEN 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-D.Spencer pushed ob at DEN 40 for 13 yards (46-C.Kuntz).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (5:51) 8-B.McManus 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 10 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 29%

    (1:37) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to PIT 10, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 7 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 33%

    (10:03) 6-S.Martin punts 33 yards to PIT 14, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 24%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 81-T.Patrick to PIT 46 for 5 yards (21-T.Norwood). Official Measurement.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 80%

    (12:21) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton pushed ob at PIT 3 for 25 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%

    (10:19) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 9-K.Hinton for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (7:53) 6-P.Harvin punts 63 yards to DEN 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 28 for 13 yards (48-D.Tuszka). DEN-12-M.Ford was injured during the play.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 26 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 83%

    (2:33) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 3 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (:17) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 42-J.Pierre at PIT -8. Touchback.