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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 49

Denver Broncos 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(1:37) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to PIT 10, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.21 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.32 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model