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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 47

Denver Broncos 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(10:03) 6-S.Martin punts 33 yards to PIT 14, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.34 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.29 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model