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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 51

Denver Broncos 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 24

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 81-T.Patrick to PIT 46 for 5 yards (21-T.Norwood). Official Measurement.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.63 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model