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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 28

Denver Broncos 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 24

What Actually Happened

(12:21) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton pushed ob at PIT 3 for 25 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).

The Three Options

GO +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.11 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model