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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 2

Denver Broncos 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 24

What Actually Happened

(10:19) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 9-K.Hinton for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.74 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 2, worth +0.53 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model