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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 69

Denver Broncos 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:02) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to PIT 17, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.24 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 69, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 27, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model