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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 30

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(12:46) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.00 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 40, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model