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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 34

Detroit Lions 3 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(:45) 4-A.Seibert 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.38 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 34, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 44, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model