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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2021-10-10 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 10.0 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

DET
35.8%
MIN
64.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET defense: +0.231 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • MIN offense: +0.092 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • MIN defense: +0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Kirk Cousins (MIN): +0.164 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

DET 22
–
MIN 28
Projected margin: MIN by 6 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

DET

Trey Flowers LB Questionable Knee
T.J. Hockenson TE Questionable Knee
Penei Sewell T Questionable Ankle
D'Andre Swift RB Questionable Groin
Jamaal Williams RB Questionable Hip

MIN

Michael Pierce DT Out Elbow
Ihmir Smith-Marsette WR Out Toe
Dalvin Cook RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 17
–
MIN 19

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:38 FG DET (10:38) 4-A.Seibert 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 3 – MIN 0
  • Q1 06:34 FG MIN (6:34) 1-G.Joseph 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. DET 3 – MIN 3
  • Q2 09:54 FG MIN (9:54) 1-G.Joseph 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. DET 3 – MIN 6
  • Q2 02:29 TD MIN (2:29) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 25-A.Mattison for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 3 – MIN 12
  • Q2 00:45 FG DET (:45) 4-A.Seibert 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 6 – MIN 13
  • Q4 04:33 FG MIN (4:33) 1-G.Joseph 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. DET 6 – MIN 16
  • Q4 02:34 FG DET (2:34) 4-A.Seibert 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 9 – MIN 16
  • Q4 00:41 TD DET (:41) 32-D.Swift right tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 15 – MIN 16
  • Q4 00:03 FG MIN (:03) 1-G.Joseph 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. DET 17 – MIN 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 9 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 91%

    (10:38) 4-A.Seibert 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 8 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 92%

    (6:34) 1-G.Joseph 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 92%

    (9:54) 1-G.Joseph 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (6:44) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to MIN 12, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 73%

    (:45) 4-A.Seibert 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (12:58) 3-J.Berry punts 50 yards to DET 23, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 37 for 14 yards (59-N.Vigil; 42-A.DePaola).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 14 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:28) 3-J.Berry punts 54 yards to DET 13, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 13 for no gain (29-K.Boyd).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (4:39) 3-J.Fox punts 67 yards to MIN 5, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-27-B.Price.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 3 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (14:13) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to MIN 25, Center-47-S.Daly. 12-D.Westbrook to MIN 27 for 2 yards (27-B.Price).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (12:08) 3-J.Berry punts 46 yards to DET 21, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 9 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 41%

    (9:47) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-47-S.Daly, Touchback.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 8 at the 37 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 66%

    (4:33) 1-G.Joseph 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 15 at the 57 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:43) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 34 for -9 yards (98-D.Wonnum).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 7 at the 31 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 78%

    (3:22) 1-G.Joseph 49 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 22 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 90%

    (2:34) 4-A.Seibert 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.