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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 14 at the 67

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(7:28) 3-J.Berry punts 54 yards to DET 13, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 13 for no gain (29-K.Boyd).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.69 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 67, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 25, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model