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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 72

Detroit Lions 6 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to MIN 25, Center-47-S.Daly. 12-D.Westbrook to MIN 27 for 2 yards (27-B.Price).

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.20 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 72, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 30, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model