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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Detroit Lions
4th & 9 at the 47
Detroit Lions 6 – Minnesota Vikings 13
What Actually Happened
(9:47) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-47-S.Daly, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.51 EP
Model's Pick
-
34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.38 EP
- 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 47, worth -2.55 EP
KICK
-0.84 EP
- 41% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
- 59% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT
-0.56 EP
What Happened
- Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 13, worth -0.56 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
